Podgorica, (MINA) – European integration is an opportunity for Montenegro to make politically costly decisions and implement difficult reforms that have been delayed for years, political scientist Andjela Micanovic said, warning that the country could miss a historic chance for EU membership if it fails to achieve a minimum level of social and political consensus.

 

In an interview with the MINA News Agency, Micanovic said that political elites in Montenegro have used identity and social divisions as a mechanism for political survival for decades, while at the same time institutions have been weakened and partitocracy strengthened.

 

Pointing out that Montenegro, twenty years after the restoration of independence, has many reasons to be proud, including NATO membership and progress on the European path, Micanovic said that, while the formal attributes of statehood have been strengthened, political space became more and more polarized.

 

“During the past three decades since the breakup of Yugoslavia, political elites have learned to use divisions as a very effective model of political survival. Mobilization around identity and historical issues proved to often be more politically profitable than discussions about the economy, judiciary or the quality of institutions”, Micanovic said.

 

In the meantime, as she pointed out, much more important processes have taken place under the public radar, often without any hesitation or public condemnation: weakening of institutions, concentration of power and exploitation of public resources.

 

Referring to internal problems, such as corruption, organized crime, brain drain, low living standards and weak institutions, Micanovic assessed that the key challenge for Montenegro in the next two years will be to show sufficient political and social maturity to take advantage of the geopolitical momentum that has emerged and speed up the country’s progress towards the EU membership.

 

“Opportunities like this don’t come up often, and the windows of opportunity do not stay open for long”, said Micanovic, adding that the European integration process is an opportunity to make politically costly decisions and implement difficult reforms that have been delayed for years.

 

Asked if the “28 by 28” goal of the Montenegrin Government is achievable, Micanovic said that it is a politically effective slogan because, among other things, it exerts subtle pressure on Brussels and EU member states so that the process does not remain just another unfulfilled promise. 

 

“Montenegro must not assume that its membership is a guaranteed or that accession will come almost automatically”, said Micanovic, emphasizing that two years in European politics represent a long period.

 

She warned that in case the geopolitical circumstances remain relatively unchanged, it is quite possible that the process will slow down or be blocked by a member state dissatisfied with the pace or quality of reforms.

 

“This is precisely why it would be wrong to reduce the accession strategy solely to the technical closure of the chapter – we must do more”, stressed Micanovic.

 

She added that, in addition to implementing real and sustainable reforms, Montenegro must invest much more seriously in political and diplomatic positioning towards the member states.

 

When asked whether membership in the EU can contribute to internal cohesion in Montenegro, Micanovic said that the EU membership cannot automatically produce internal cohesion, nor resolve the political and social divisions that exist in Montenegro, adding that they are too entrenched and that the electoral dynamics would probably further deepen them.